If you want to know why the Chinese are building up their forces in the South and East China Sea, the answer lies in Taiwan. Several press outlets have picked up the story of Tsai len-wen, about to be the new leader of Taiwan. The central government is not happy with her speech which has "left out" some very important discussion of the relationship between the two. Perhaps Tsai's mother taught her not to speak ill of the big neighbor to the North. Better to say nothing.
The Chinese have already started on their constant drum beat about the 1992 Consensus. The Consensus was an agreement between representatives of the two countries that Taiwan is part of the geography of China but that both parties may think of this arrangement in their own way. In diplomatic-speak, this is a way of saying, "Taiwan is our territory, but you can think of it as yours - for now." It isn't like this is a treaty, or a formal recognition that this is the state of being between the two, but China uses it to describe what it sees as the basis of the relationship between the two. And, as we have seen recently, what China sees as the relationship is all they will accept. They are going to cut off Taiwan's few formal lines of communications, and probably much more, before this is over. That will change, of course, if she just says the words. This is the logic that prisoners of war face with their captors, which fits the situation better than we would like.
The Chinese saw how Crimea worked for the Russians, and have moved towards a slow and deliberate takeover of Taiwan. They are just a lot more patient than the Russians. They waited 50 years for the takeover of Hong Kong, and are in no big hurry to do much there either. Just a little here and a little there.
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