Tuesday, July 11, 2017

North Korea - China on All Lips

Almost every newspaper and on-line news service has some story about North Korea and how to solve this old problem.  That part is not new, but something else about it is - every one of them is pointing to China as the main reason no progress has been made and the North continues down a path to nuclear weapons.

Some interesting suggestions have come from this discussion, but they start with something more basic - To do anything with the North, you must first deal with China.  This leads to speculation about how to do that, from William McGurn's suggestion that we might limit Chinese enrollment in our elite schools until China comes around, to Robert Gates, the former head of the CIA and Defense Department, who suggested there might be a way to make a deal with China over the outcome that would leave the North as a nuclear power, but limit its weapons.  Deal with China first, then if need be handle North Korea alone.

What all of these point to is the recognition that China has been behind North Korea all along and no solution can go to the North directly.  It has to go through China.  So, for all those people who said this had nothing to do with China and the North was a sovereign country that would act on its own no matter what, it seems that myth has finally exploded.  North Korea exists because China wants it to be what it is - a saber rattling, boisterous, out-of-control bunch of maniacs who have the rest of the world reacting to it.  It is those reactions the Chinese want to see.  They watch and plan according to those reactions.  It benefits them, and nearly no other country, including the North.

There are two principles we need to remember, reciprocity and accountability.  China has no accountability for what the North actually does, and it should have.  They are not a passive observer, and North Korea is their child who needs correction.  If you were in a store and some children were running around knocking over displays and yelling, you would look for the parents took get them under control.  These kids are spoiled beyond belief because their parents don't want them to behave. They want to measure the reaction to the public displays of idiocy.  But, we also owe China some reciprocity for actions North Korea takes.  David Sanger at the New York Times said that when North Korea attacked Sony, the Obama Administration considered striking China instead.  That is the kind of reciprocity we need.  They need to be held accountable for their creation, and face the consequences.

China, says the BBC, is pushing back saying "everyone has to do their part" which is slang for "make concessions before any negotiation ever starts".  We can remember these words from the first days of missile firings, when President Trump said he would be glad to meet with the North.  That was a very unpopular thing in his own country where dealing with the North's is just slightly above a stage four cancer diagnosis in popularity.  When someone says they want to drop a nuclear bomb on one of your major cities, you can't treat them like they are kidding.  Instead of deescalating the rhetoric, they continue to shoot off missiles with longer and longer ranges.



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