Russians Wedge Belarus in Exercises

Not too many US papers carried anything on the September Russian exercises with Belarus, right on the border with Poland and Lithuania.  The Russians call this "purely defensive" but it would be less than politically correct to say, "We are preparing for a strengthening of position in neighboring states, so we thought we would stage exercises and leave some of that equipment behind in case we ever need it again."  The Russians have had troops in that region for a long time, in Kaliningrad, so getting them additional equipment is not that hard to do.  Last year, Poland put some 46,000 troops in that area and want to have three brigades there.  They really do not trust the Russian expansion in that area and have good reason to remember World War II's outcome for them.  They don't want anything like expanded Russian presence in that area.

The Russians say troop strength for these exercises are less than 13,000, which NATO looks at with some skepticism.  It turns out, that number is the trigger for international oversight of exercises - inserting observers - supposedly as canaries to warn of an exercise expanding into a military takeover.  Unless the Russians were completely stupid, they would never let those observers know what they were really doing, or lie about the numbers - maybe both.  In March, the LA Times ran an article asking the question if Belarus was the next Ukraine.  They have certainly done everything they can to make it look like the Ukraine - propaganda blitzes against politicians, special trade deals that bind them to the Kremlin, et al - quoting the reasons like this:  "The show began with a discussion about how Russia had failed to react quickly enough to stop Ukraine’s betrayal of Moscow during the protests of 2014. The host, Artyom Sheynin, then turned to Belarus, introducing it as a country suffering from a “similar sickness.”  If that doesn't sound ominous enough, I don't know what does.  Maybe NATO can pick up their game on this and be more aggesssive with the Russians.  With fighting ISIS, engaging North Korea, keeping Iran in check, and spending large amounts on major damage in the US Gulf, the US is busy.  The Russians know it too.