Narrowing Down Russian Role

The British have come a long way in a short time in narrowing down the role of Russia in the assasination attempt on Sergei Skripal and his daughter, due largely to putting two and two together with some intelligence they already knew.  The BBC published that account today in what will surely be a movie in a few months.  It has a little of everything.

The blame falls on a poison that was developed in Russia and tested in Uzbekistan, where in 1999 the US had access to the site and helped decontaminate it.  The Russians could not have chosen a better poison to use and knew that it was traceable to them.  They deny doing anything, but want to be seen as the culprit.  That makes perfect sense if you want everyone to know what you did, but still want to deny doing it.  “Show us your proof” said Mr. Putin the other day to a reporter, when that was the last thing he would really want.

This was a message to other spies who might want to work with someone in another country - we will find you and you will die a horrible death.  That has been done before in Britain, and they didn’t like it much the first time;  they are really not going to like it this time.  This was reckless, has one policeman in the hospital who came into contact with the victims, and could have affected many more.  People may die and never know what killed them.  This poison, Novichok, was designed to be hard to detect and resistant to some of the common treatments for nerve agents.  It is typical Russian bravado - in your face with this poison.  Yes, you can identify it and by the time you do, it will be too late.  Message sent.   Let’s see what you can do about it.

If it were me, I would expel the Russian delegation from Britain and close the embassy.  Then, stop buying anything from Russia.  It would be harder to pull off another stunt like this without support in the location where it was being carried out.