China Squeezes Taiwan

The Wall Street Journal editorial board does not get into Chinese policy too often, but today they did.  They summarized the four-fold increase of air patrols over Taiwan, and the running of live-fire exercises near it.  Air patrols are annoying but don’t serve the same purpose as live fire exercises.

Live fire exercises are what I call “denial of area” events.  There are international warnings that go out to shipping and air traffic warning of the potential for harm if people get too close.  As they did several times around Hainan Island (at least once with joint Russian exercises) the Chinese work up to these exercises with announcements and fanfare that declare areas of territory off limits for several days.  They shoot off lots of ammo and make spalshs in the water, but not much else.  They probably kill a good number of fish.

But, what they are really doing is declaring their control of these areas, and their domain over air and sea.  Taiwan is not likely to last long in a real fight with China, so it walks a fine line in being independent.  Xi wants Taiwan to go the way of Hong Kong, where live fire exercises could not be conducted.  He thinks if enough pressure is applied, Taiwan will have no choice and there is nothing anybody in the world can do about it.  It is all part of the South China Sea, which China still claims in spite of international condemnation of that claim.  What is the rush?

China has always kept the claim to the South China Sea below the radar, similar to the way Russia dealt with Crimea.  Now, other countries are getting involved and the US has threatened to get back into trade agreements with the countries of the region.  Opening up more trade with Taiwan makes it harder for China to exercise its control.  Opening up regional trade makes it harder still.  They want to make their move before those agreements are set and the world decides China is interfering with trade when it stakes claims to little islands, then militarizes them to enforce those claims.  Anyone who runs their ships or aircraft  through that area is very familiar with the warning notices and implied threats.

President Trump is not like President Obama, and I doubt that China is fond of the differences.   Trump has linked economic, military, and political interests together, just as the Chinese do.