Wednesday, September 11, 2019

Russians Assasinate Another

The Russians are not shy about killing their former enemies in another country.  This time it is Germany, instead of the UK where the Russians had been busy making headlines and having a number of their agents removed.

According to the Wall Street Journal today (Russia Orchestrated Chechen Rebel’s Murder in Germany, U.S. Officials Say), the victim is a a 40-year-old Georgian who once commanded forces against Russia during a Chechen uprising, Zelimkhan Khangoshvili.  "Minutes later, German police arrested a Russian man attempting to leave the scene on an electric scooter after he discarded a pistol and silencer. " Given the circumstances of his capture, it is a good bet they have the right person.

The Russians, even in the face of being caught red-handed so to speak, will deny any involvement in the killing.  Official press releases will offer alternative ways the person might have died, motives for others to have killed him, and official statements from high-ranking government officials "proving" that it couldn't have been anyone Russian or directed by the Russian government.  It is a little easier to do this time.

At least this guy is not a known GRU agent who is stupid enough to get caught.  He was recently released from a Russian prison, where he had been serving a sentence for murder.  They let him out and gave him a passport with a new identity.  They have used this little trick before with people in mental hospitals.

The victim's routes of travel were laid out for him by someone else.  He rode a bicycle to the park where Khangoshvili was known to get to his mosque, shot him in the head twice in a place with plenty of witnesses around, changed clothes and hid away.  He still got caught.

The Russians are going to have some openings for telling a different story since the shooter is not a GRU agent.  They can deny government sponsorship, though the passport is a liability after just getting out of prison.  They will, of course, say they were glad to be rid of this person.  The French can tell us why they gave this person a visa to travel all over Europe. 


Monday, September 9, 2019

China Manipulation of National Economic Data

There is a good article in the Wall Street Journal today on the manipulation of Chinese economic data.  The title will tell you quite a bit about the content:  China Says Growth Is Fine. Private Data Show a Sharper Slowdown.

Most China followers find the growth China shows a little too optimistic and amazingly aligned with the goals set by the Chinese Communist Party.  For many years Russia had the same problem with harvests and production data.  It should be obvious that there are consequences for not meeting a production target so it is better to meet the number whether there was actual production to meet it, or not.  We know why some people do that, but the U.S. is getting better at getting to the real financial data by some really clever ways.  Included in this article were stories about satellites measuring the amount of electricity being used in certain cities, production data from unofficial sources like banks that loan money for autos, and some U.S. companies with operations in China.  One, Eaton, reported industrial growth was 2.7% but the official Chinese estimates were 5%.  When China's economy is at $13 Trillion, those one or two percent differences can be a lot of money.