When Korea, Japan and the U.S. responded to warnings about how China was going to enforce its airspace identification and challenge, the public press saw the Chinese backing down from any threat to their proclaimed lands. This may be prematurely optimistic, given the Chinese way of fighting.
Chinese doctrine says they will pick the time of fighting, when it is to their advantage. When they fought a war with Viet Nam, in 1979, there were 30,000 casualties. Two years before it started the Vietnamese occupied one of the islands still in dispute, the Spratly Islands, but they also invaded Cambodia and ran out the Khmer Rouge, the China-backed government. Both of these things are quite a bit more disconcerting than trying to plant flags on an island.
In 1985 and early 1986, China was lobbing shells over the border into Viet Nam and threatening it with other types of action. In 1988, they fought battle not far from the Spratlys and 70 Vietnamese sailors were killed. They still have run-ins with each other and have had survey equipment and fishing vessels damaged by the Chinese. We usually think of China and Viet Nam as allies.
For those thinking Korea, Japan and the U.S. are off the hook, given the recent response, remember none of these countries are exactly friends of China. The Chinese will wait for a better time, when they have an advantage, and they will indicate the response was intended as a warning over incursions into its territory. We will have limited response options, and the State Department will crank out warnings until the Chinese get tired of reading them, but nothing much will happen after that. This will be a long and winding road, full of surprises and the occasional casualty. It is the way the Chinese fight - even with their friends.
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