Facts are not Required

Today's downing of a Russian SU-24 fighter shows the "facts" in any international incident are quickly established by both sides.  The Russians say it was over Syrian airspace;  the Turks say it was over Turkish airspace and was warned 10 times in 5 minutes.  The Turks say it was shot down by a Turkish Air Force plane.  Some news reports are saying it might have been a shoulder fired missile, or something bigger.  BBC says last week the Turks warned the Russians to stop bombing the Turkmen in this part of Syria.  Everyone agrees this is a serious international incident.

The location of the jet is not hard to determine.  It is a question of fact.  There are probably 10 radars around that place that caught the jet coming into the airspace.  Lots of people know where it was and what it was bombing, because many governments are watching.  If the jet was bombing someone, they all know where it was dropping the ordinance.  The people on the ground where it was falling probably know who was bombing them.  Somebody made a cellphone video of the whole thing, so that will have enough information to figure out where the plane was when it was hit.

When a country controls its press like Russia we expect to see a series of stories supporting the Russian view of these events.  In the long run, the facts will be established the same way they always are, but the domestic audience in Russia will already believe whatever stories they manage to get out quickly.  The facts will not influence them very much, because most of them will be papered over by an endless stream of their version of events.  It goes to credibility.

We will know in a day or two which version of the event was the correct one.  If the Turks are right, the Russians will continue to publish the same stories over and over in different forms, even though the rest of the world finds them incredible.  That belief that the Russian press is incredible will not go away.  If the Russians are right, they will have lots of help from the rest of the world's press to blast that message to anyone who can read.  We are anxious to see what the truth turns out to be..