Sorting Out Syria

We finally have some sorting out going on in Syria.  The Israelis shot down a drone that came from an area held by Iran’s military, the Turkish forces gained ground against some of the Kurds in Afrin, and the US bombed some Syrian military forces trying to get the Syrian Democratic forces in the East.  This puts US, Russian, Iranian, Syrian and Turkish forces all in the mix in a highly volatile confined space.  The proxies have not gone away, but the major protagonists have stepped things up so they stand a greater chance of directly engaging.

The Russians try to pretend they are not playing this game, but probably have become more adept at hiding their efforts.  They still have some pretty big bases in Syria and those are not going away.  There are several news stories today saying the US bombing of Syrian troops killed some “Russian contractors”.  These are not like the contractors in the Ukraine who showed up in military uniforms to fight, and didn’t even bother to take them off.  This is crude and ineffective if you trying to have deniability.  This new group of contractors is a little more sophisticated.  Iran is not hiding its participation very well in the last few days.  They got a drone shot down in Israel for their trouble, and attacked directly by Israeli fighter jets, one of which was shot down by “Syrian forces” in the area.  At any given moment, there is no telling who is fighting whom there.  Don’t bet against the Kurds.  It is kind of like betting on the opponent playing against the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl.  They win now and again, but in the long run, the Patriots win more than they lose.  So do the Kurds.  Some Kurds are fighting on both sides and will come out ahead in the end, no matter who wins.