Latest from US-China Economic and Security

The US-China Economic and Security Review Committee regularly publishes updates and this is from their latest: 

" From December 19 to 21, 2018, China held its annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), during which Chinese Communist Party leaders review China’s economy over the past year and set the direction of economic policy for the next year.* The conference comes as trade tensions with the United States and weakening domestic consumption increasingly weigh on China’s economy.

Although the CEWC’s proceedings are kept secret, Chinese state-run media outlet Xinhua publishes an official summary of the conference.1 Although it is doubtful the readout is fully transparent about the contents of the meeting or the assessment of the assembled group, it reflected a darkened economic outlook, acknowledging “new and worrisome developments” and a “complicated and severe” external environment.2 . In response, Chinese leaders promised increased economic support measures, with a greater emphasis on fiscal over monetary policy.3 “China will strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments in its macro policy, continue to implement proactive fiscal policy and
prudent monetary policy, make preemptive adjustments and fine-tune policies at the proper times, and ensure stable aggregate demand,” the statement said.4 Without directly referencing the “Made in China 2025” industrial plan— which the government has been downplaying lately†—Chinese leaders identified “high-quality development in manufacturing” as a key economic priority for 2019.5" .

Now the question is will they change policies to get trade talks back to normal.  We hear quite a bit about China's changes that are pending, but not much has been said about making those moves permanent.  The Chinese issue "window guidance" on policy that interprets how policy will be implemented, but that guidance is modified as the reaction starts coming in.  The basic polices are vague and full of words that have multiple meanings.  Can we trust them to implement a policy that will stick?  In a word, no.