New Report from US-China Economic and Security Review

Today they USCC released a staff research report entitled "China’s Missile Program and Potential U.S. Withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty."

Recently, the Trump Administration cited China as a major reason behind its decision to announce U.S. intentions to withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with Russia. This report explains the importance of China’s ground-launched missiles to Beijing’s overall military strategy; surveys Chinese reactions to the potential U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty; and assesses both the positive and negative implications of U.S. withdrawal for the military balance in Asia, global arms control regime, U.S. relations with Asian allies, and China-Russia ties.

Happy to answer on this report, which can be found here. 

This is a really interesting report and well worth reading.  I was surprised by some of the military options that China has because the US participates in the INF and China does not.   "In explaining its justification for withdrawing from the INF Treaty, the Trump Administration has cited both Chinese missile capabilities and Russian violations of the agreement. President Trump criticized both countries’ development of INF Treaty-noncompliant missiles and explained his rationale for planning to leave the treaty, saying, “If Russia’s doing it, and if China’s doing it, and we’re adhering to the agreement, that’s unacceptable.”

 The Trump Administration cited China as a major reason behind its decision to announce U.S. intentions
to withdraw from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with Russia. Washington has
not yet initiated the formal process of leaving the treaty, which requires six months advance notice.

 Beijing is not a party to the INF Treaty. In contrast to the restrictions the agreement imposes on the United
States and Russia, remaining outside the pact has allowed China to rapidly expand its missile arsenal as
part of a military strategy designed to counter U.S. and allied military power in Asia.

 China opposes both U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty and expanding the accord to include Beijing.
Implicit in this position is a recognition that limits on the United States and Russia that do not constrain
China advantage Beijing.

 Chinese experts see the likely U.S. withdrawal as emblematic of a more aggressive U.S. nuclear and missile
posture as well as a means for Washington to pressure Moscow. Chinese scholars have proposed punishing
U.S. allies in Asia if they host U.S. missiles in the future.

 U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty would have significant policy implications for the military balance in
Asia, the global arms control regime, U.S. relations with Asian allies, and China-Russia ties. Withdrawal
would have mixed impacts that potentially could improve or detract from regional and global security and
the U.S. and allied ability to deter China.